NZ businesses requesting more shifts than their Australian counterparts
Overall we saw a 20% YoY decline in shifts per business with Hospitality (-36% YoY) and Aged Care (-66% YoY) being the most impacted. Victoria saw the biggest YoY decline in shifts per business down 31% YoY. Applications per shift was up 15% YoY yet down from a 88% YoY growth rate for the June Quarter. For the first time since Covid we saw NZ businesses requesting more shifts than their Australian counterparts.
Industry Insights
Hospitality & Events
There was an overall 36% YoY decline in the total number of shifts per customer. The decline in shifts per business was less than the June quarter which saw a YoY decline of 46%. Within the quarter we saw a 38% MoM decline in shifts per customer between August and September, with the women’s soccer World cup being the dominant reason. Applications per shift reached a more balanced level in the September quarter averaging 3.3 down from 4.7 in the June quarter.
Interestingly we have not seen the seasonal kick we would expect in the June quarter with total shifts only growing 11% QoQ compared to pre Covid levels which grew 50% QoQ. This could be a result of interest rates dampening demand within the overall sector.
Despite statutory wage increases from 1 Sept, rates are still below the peaks of CY22 which were inflated due to labor shortages throughout 2022.
Warehousing & Logistics
There was an overall 12% YoY increase in the number of shifts per customer. Whilst QoQ shift levels remained flat, we expect to see this tick up as we get closer to Christmas. Applications per shift grew 8% YoY down from a YoY growth rate of 21% in the June quarter. We believe supply levels have normalised and we are now in a pretty well balanced market.
Whilst we have seen an overall increase YoY in shifts per business we believe this is largely driven by a change in customer mix with larger customers spending at similar levels whilst fewer SMB businesses are spending. Rates are up 11% YoY which is above the statutory increases.
Aged Care
Aged Care saw a 65% YoY decline in the number of shifts per business and a 41% decline QoQ. Applications per shift grew 200%YoY driven by the easing of labour pressures from 2022.
Despite the easing of supply pressures, average worker rates grew 6% YoY in September, highlighting the impact of legislated changes that were introduced in July. QoQ wages rose c.7.5% on the back of these changes with a portion of legislated wage increase already built into pre July rates.
We believe increased cost pressures on the sector is impacting the hiring of casuals by homes. Rates have grown 6% YoY despite a c.20% statutory increase showing that the market was already paying rates above legal minimums to attract and retain nurses and carers in 2022.
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